President Donald Trump was elected in 2024 with support from a majority of Catholic voters, but a poll shows his support from Catholics dipping below 50% amid the U.S. war against Iran.

The poll, conducted March 20–23 jointly by Republican pollster Shaw & Co. Research and Democratic pollster Beacon Research, found that 48% of Catholic voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president and 52% disapprove.

It found that 23% of Catholics strongly approve of the job he is doing, 25% somewhat approve, 12% somewhat disapprove, and 40% strongly disapprove. The pollʼs margin of error is plus or minus 3%.

Pope Leo XIV and Catholic bishops in the United States and globally have encouraged Trump to pursue peace and diplomacy, as opposed to war, in Iran. With peace negotiations underway, the Holy Father echoed his call for more diplomacy in an April 10 post on X.

“God does not bless any conflict,” Leo said. “Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs. Military action will not create space for freedom or times of peace, which comes only from the patient promotion of coexistence and dialogue among peoples.”

In the 2024 election, Trump won the Catholic vote by a 12-point margin, securing 55% of the voting bloc’s support, compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 43%. In 2020, Trump won 49% of the Catholic vote, compared with former President Joe Biden’s 50%.

This poll comes as Trump’s support is dwindling with the broader American public as well. The poll found that only 41% of all voters approve of the president, and 59% disapprove.

Iran war disapproval

The poll found that most Catholics disapprove of Trump’s actions in Iran and the use of military force against the country but still favor some American influence in the region.

According to the poll, only 40% of Catholics approve of the way Trump has handled the conflict with Iran, and 60% disapprove. It found that 45% of Catholics support military force against Iran and 55% oppose military force. Similarly, 45% of Catholics believe military action against Iran is going well, and 55% believe it is not going well.

The poll found that 39% of Catholics believe attacks on Iran will make the country safer, 38% believe it will make the country less safe, and 23% believe it will not make much of a difference.

Alternatively, 71% of Catholics believe ending Iran’s nuclear program is important, and 29% said it is not important. It found 61% said it is important to bring about changes in Iran’s government, and 39% said it is not important.

The poll also found that 71% of Catholics believe it is important to protect the flow of oil from the region, and 29% believe it is not important. It found that 73% of Catholics believe it is important to reduce Iran’s support for terrorism, and 27% believe it is not important.

According to the poll, 74% of Catholics are concerned about Iran potentially getting a nuclear weapon, and 26% are not concerned.

2024 coalition ‘in tatters’

John White, professor emeritus of politics at The Catholic University of America, told EWTN News that he believes Trump’s 2024 coalition “is now in tatters [and] Catholics are no exception.”

“The Iran War is unpopular with the American public and Catholics reflect that,” he said. “What may carry more resonance with Catholic voters are the strong and blunt statements about the war from Pope Leo. It is not unreasonable to assume that there is a higher level of cognitive dissonance among Catholics who support Trump but are hearing the words of the pope. For some, that may result in their shifting opinions.”

Susan Hanssen, history professor at the University of Dallas — a Catholic institution — had a similar view about why Catholic support has dipped, telling EWTN News “a reversal of positions seems to be underway within the Catholic community.

“During Trump‘s campaign, Trump‘s supporters expressed hopes for a fundamental realignment of America’s foreign policy, particularly withdrawing from ‘forever wars,’ while many of Trump’s Catholic critics expressed concern during his campaign that he would disengage America from its support for Ukraine or [for] Israel,” she said. “Support for Trump’s strong stance on Iran seems to be coming now … from Catholics who were wary of Trump earlier.”

Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic, has departed the U.S. for his trip to Pakistan, where he plans to directly negotiate with Iranian leaders for a long-term peace while both sides hold off on military strikes during a two-week ceasefire.