Multiple news reports have said the number of Generation Z Catholics is surging in the United States.

ZENIT, an international Catholic news service, and Magisterium AI, a Catholic artificial intelligence agency, cited data from the 2023 Cooperative Election Study (CES) finding there are more Gen Z adults who identify as Catholic than those who identify as Protestant.

Claim: Among Gen Z, those born roughly between 1997 and 2012, Catholics outnumber Protestants for the first time in the United States.

The CES report found that in 2023 the group was made up of 21% Catholics, compared with 19% Protestants. But other researchers dispute the data based on its sampling methods.

EWTN News finds: There are likely still more Protestant young adults than Catholics, although available quantitative and anecdotal data on the question is not decisive.

“Overall, from looking at the broader context of our surveys, it seems clear that Catholics are more like 14-16% of Gen Z adults rather than 21%,” Brian Schaffner, co-director of CES said.

The breakdown: The Religion and Public Life research team at Pew Research Center told EWTN News that Pew surveys “find that among the youngest adults in the U.S., there are more Protestants than Catholics.”

“In fact, in our recent Religious Landscape Study, we found that among the youngest adults (those born between 2000-06 and who were roughly between the ages of 18 and 24 when the survey was conducted), there are about twice as many Protestants as Catholics,” the researchers said. “Within this age group, 28% are Protestant and 14% are Catholic.”

The team also noted its research found “that Catholics are not more numerous among young adults than among older adults.” Rather, “young adults as a whole are far less religious than older adults.”

“When it comes to Catholicism, far more young people have switched out than in,” according to Pew’s “Religion Holds Steady in America” report. “Overall, 12% of today’s youngest adults have switched out of Catholicism. Meanwhile, 1% of adults ages 18 to 24 have switched into Catholicism, meaning that they identify as Catholic today after having been raised in another religion or no religion.”

Data variations

If Pew researchers found there are more Protestants than Catholics within young age groups, why is the CES data different?

“It is true that the 2023 CES shows that 21% of Gen Z American adults identify as Catholic compared to 19% who say Protestant,” Schaffner said.

“That said, I would note that once we account for sampling error, we can’t be confident that the Catholic figure is actually larger than the Protestant figure. More importantly, it is quite clear that the 2023 figure is an outlier for our data.”

In 2022, 20% of Gen Z respondents identified as Protestant and 14% as Catholic. Based on the data and previous years’ findings, Schaffner said, “It seems pretty clear from looking at that context that the 2023 figure for Catholics is almost certainly too high.”

Ryan Burge, religion and politics researcher and professor at the John C. Danforth Center at Washington University, said there is “reason to doubt” the data due to “aberrations” in the 2023 CES, according to his article “Is Catholicism Surging Among Younger Folks?”

“If you compare the 2023 data to that collected in 2022 from the oldest three generations (Silent, Boomers, Gen X), there’s not a big difference,” Burge said. “It’s a point or two off, which is just the nature of survey data.”

But, when examining millennials and Gen Z, the data is “definitely beyond the typical variation that exists in this type of work,” he said. “In 2022, 16% of millennials were Catholic — it’s 20% in the 2023 data. Among Gen Z, 15% were Catholic compared to 21% in 2023.”

“The 2023 CES data is a lot more Catholic than it ‘should’ be,” Burge said.

“For instance, about 16% of people born in 1990 were Catholic in 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2023, that percentage is five points higher. That same gap exists for people born throughout the 1990s and even into the 2000s.”

Burge also noted other aberrations among the 2023 findings. The CES information reported the number of people who “never” or “seldom” attend Mass in 2023 dropped from 41% in 2022 to 38% in 2023, while the weekly attendees rose from 29% to 34%.

“Weekly attendance doesn’t just jump five points in one year,” Burge said.

There was also a large jump in 2023 in the share of Catholics who identify as “born-again” or “evangelical.” From 2008 through 2022 there was a steady increase in the number who identified as such, usually only changing by one or two percent points each year, but from 2022 to 2023 there was a nine-point increase.

Number of young Catholics may still be increasing

While the CES data has been questioned, it does not mean there are not increases in the number of Gen Z adults drawn to the faith.

EWTN News has previously found that several college campuses across the country witnessed a notable rise in baptisms and confirmations among students in 2025. Catholic evangelists told EWTN News that the growth reflects a deepening desire among young adults for certainty, stability, and faith.

The Cardinal Newman Society also found using National Catholic Educational Association and Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) data that there has been an increase in students at Catholic colleges, with an increase of 75%. In 1970, the data showed there were 411,111 students enrolled in Catholic colleges; in 2022 there were 717,197.

In a press release, the Cardinal Newman Society highlighted some of the undergraduate enrollment at Newman Guide Recommended Catholic colleges for the 2025-26 academic year.

At Ave Maria University, there was a record undergraduate enrollment of 1,342 and a record incoming freshman class. Benedictine College has 2,250 undergraduate students, an increase of 22% over the last 10 years. The Cardinal Newman Society also reported that The Catholic University of America has increased undergraduate enrollment by 11% in the last five years.

Update: This story was updated at 10:25 a.m. Jan. 22 to add comments by Brian Schaffner.